With a tender and heartfelt embrace, we lovingly hold space for cherished retirees who rely on the radiant lifeline of Social Security, as recent actions by former President Donald Trump—including the removal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) head—gently stir concern in Washington. This sacred moment arrives as economists softly share that the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) may be among the smallest in recent years, touching the financial well-being of many.
With care, we invite reflection and support to cradle the security of those navigating these changes. Together, we unite in fostering a compassionate community where every individual feels profoundly valued, supported, and uplifted with boundless hope, dignity, and love for their radiant retirement journey.
And here’s the kicker: since COLA is calculated using inflation data from the BLS, any disruption or manipulation in how that data is collected could seriously affect how much money ends up in your pocket each month. Let’s break it down in plain English: this isn’t just a political reshuffling—it’s a move that could change how your monthly Social Security checks grow (or don’t).
Your Social Security COLA at Risk
| What Happened | Details |
|---|---|
| BLS Chief Fired | Trump removed Erika McEntarfer, head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) |
| Federal Hiring Freeze Enacted | Trump reimplemented a hiring freeze, limiting BLS capacity to collect real inflation data |
| COLA Based on CPI-W | Social Security COLA is based on Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W) |
| 2026 COLA Forecast | Estimated COLA for 2026 is just 2.2%–2.3%, down from 2025’s 2.5% |
| Political Concerns Raised | Experts warn the BLS may become politicized, skewing COLA outcomes |
Trump’s reshuffling of the Labor Department—including firing the BLS commissioner and freezing hiring—has sparked major concerns about how inflation data is collected and reported. Since that data directly affects how Social Security COLA is calculated, retirees may face lower benefit increases even as living costs rise. To stay ahead, monitor the numbers, diversify your income, and speak up. If you rely on Social Security, this isn’t just politics—it’s your paycheck.
Why This Matters: The COLA Connection
Every year, the Social Security Administration (SSA) adjusts benefits to keep pace with inflation. That’s called the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA). But it’s not a guess—COLA is calculated using very specific government data: the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), published by the BLS.
So when the person responsible for collecting that data is fired… and the agency is frozen from hiring staff to go out and collect real-world prices… guess what happens? You get inaccurate numbers, and COLA suffers.
Bottom Line: If inflation data is underreported, your monthly Social Security raise could be smaller than it should be.
How Is COLA Calculated?
Let’s keep it super simple.
- The SSA looks at inflation data from July, August, and September.
- They compare it to the same months in the previous year.
- If inflation went up, your check goes up.
For example:
- If inflation is 3%, your COLA might be 3%.
- If it’s reported as 1.5% (because of flawed data), you only get that increase—even if groceries, gas, and rent say otherwise.
The 2026 Forecast: A Slap in the Wallet?
Experts at the Senior Citizens League project a COLA of just 2.2% to 2.3% for 2026. That’s down from:
- 2.5% in 2025
- 3.2% in 2024
- 8.7% in 2023 (a record due to post-pandemic inflation)
If these estimates are artificially suppressed, retirees will feel it hard, especially with:
- Rising housing costs
- Medical expenses
- Energy prices still unstable
What Trump Changed and Why It Matters
Fired the BLS Head
In June 2025, Trump removed BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, claiming the agency had “lost credibility.” Critics argue it’s a power play to gain control over economic narratives, especially inflation numbers.
Froze Federal Hiring
The BLS is short-staffed. Without field data collectors (people who visit stores and check prices), they may rely on estimates or “proxy data”—which may not reflect reality.
This weakens the data quality and makes the COLA number more like a dart throw than a mirror of true cost increases.
Politicized CPI-W Data?
Several economists worry that if inflation appears “low,” it benefits short-term political narratives but hurts retirees who need accurate cost adjustments.
What You Can Do: Protection Plan
Know Your COLA Rights
Visit the SSA’s official COLA page to stay up to date on:
- Historical COLA trends
- How each year’s increase is calculated
- What to expect next
Track Inflation Independently
Use tools like:
- bls.gov/cpi
- shadowstats.com (alternative economic analysis)
Compare these with the official COLA announcements and question major discrepancies.
Build a Retirement Buffer
If COLA won’t cut it:
- Save more in Roth IRAs or 401(k)s
- Set up a Health Savings Account (HSA)
- Look into annuities or dividend-paying investments to build reliable income
Contact Lawmakers
Push for transparency in inflation data. Tell your reps not to politicize Social Security formulas or economic measurements. Use this site to email them directly: https://www.usa.gov/elected-officials
Related Links
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Real-World Example: Meet Mary
Mary, 72, lives in Colorado and relies 100% on Social Security. With last year’s 2.5% COLA, her benefit increased by about $42/month. But her rent rose by $70/month. If next year’s COLA is even smaller—and it’s based on bad data—Mary may have to:
- Cut back on heating
- Skip medications
- Delay car repairs
It’s not dramatic—it’s reality for millions like her.
The Bigger Picture
What’s really at stake isn’t just this year’s COLA—it’s trust. If Americans can’t count on their retirement safety net to keep up with inflation, the entire system starts to look unstable. And with BLS under pressure and the SSA already short-staffed, we’re watching a potential benefits bottleneck that could squeeze the most vulnerable citizens.
FAQs
Q: Is COLA guaranteed every year?
A: No. If inflation doesn’t rise (or is underreported), COLA could be zero. It’s happened before—in 2010, 2011, and 2016.
Q: Does this only affect retirees?
A: Nope. Disabled individuals, survivor beneficiaries, and SSI recipients all depend on COLA increases.
Q: Is Trump trying to cut Social Security?
A: That’s debated. While no direct cuts are on the table, changing how inflation is measured could indirectly reduce benefits.
Q: Can COLA ever go down?
A: It can’t be negative, but if prices drop, there may be no increase the following year.
